Key Takeaways

1. Mass Migration and Humanitarian Crisis: In September 2023, Azerbaijan’s military offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh caused more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians to flee to Armenia, creating a severe humanitarian crisis.
2. Historical Conflict: The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, rooted in historical grievances between Armenia and Azerbaijan, has been a significant issue since the 1990s.
3. Dire Conditions for Refugees: The influx of refugees has overwhelmed Armenia’s resources, with urgent needs for shelter, food, medical care, and psychological support.
4. Insufficient International Response: The international community’s response has been criticised as slow and inadequate, prompting calls for more substantial aid and support for long-term integration.
5. Ongoing Regional Instability: The crisis highlights the fragile peace and ongoing humanitarian consequences of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict and necessitates sustained international efforts for lasting stability in the South Caucasus.

Introduction

In 2023, the offensive launched by Azerbaijan on 19 September resulted in a rapid exodus of nearly the entire population of Nagorno-Karabakh within just a few days. Prior to the attack, the region had been subjected to a nine-month blockade by Azerbaijan, leading to severe food shortages, lack of medical supplies, and immense distress among the residents.[1] As Azerbaijani forces advanced, the de facto authorities, supported by Armenia since their capture of the region from Azerbaijan in the 1990s, swiftly surrendered. The attack in September marked a new phase of a long and bitter struggle for control of Nagorno-Karabakh that previously had fueled three wars over three decades and led to widespread displacement of both ethnic Armenians and Azeris.

Thousands of people left their homes without food or shelter, having no other choice but to sleep in basements, school buildings or outside.[2] While many scholars and policymakers discussed how another war would be imminent, the question marks in their minds ended with the last military action. Currently, directly governed by Azerbaijan, ethnic Armenians who lived in Nagorno-Karabakh have fled to Armenia, and ethnic cleansing seems inevitable. The main reason for the ethnic cleansing is that Azerbaijan’s primary aim is to solidify control over the region, including the removal of the historically residing Armenian population. Recent military triumphs by Azerbaijan, coupled with assertive nationalist rhetoric and policies, clearly indicate an intention to change the demographic landscape of Nagorno-Karabakh. Furthermore, the absence of robust international intervention and guarantees for the safety and rights of the Armenian population exacerbates the vulnerability of the population. [3]

History of Nagorno-Karabakh

The Armenian and Azerbaijan conflict has shattered old power dynamics and permanently altered the ethnic landscape in the South Caucasus. The primary point of conflict between Armenians and Azerbaijanis since it initially emerged had been the presence of a second Armenian republic in Nagorno-Karabakh, which until today is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan and unrecognised by any UN member state, Armenia included.[4] Before delving into the current refugee problem in Armenia, I briefly explain the history of Nagorno-Karabakh and the tensions between two countries in the past.

Up to the occupation by Russians in the early 19th century, this region was part of different Azerbaijani States.[5] However, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the First Karabakh War (1988–1994) saw ethnic Armenians gain control  over the unrecognised de facto state Nagorno-Karabakh, and seven more surrounding districts of Azerbaijan. The smaller part of Nagorno-Karabakh was home to approximately 120,000 Armenians before the war. However, due to the Armenian invasion of Azerbaijani regions, nearly 1 million Azerbaijanis were displaced from the larger Karabakh region.

The region of Karabakh continues to be a source of conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Azerbaijan, determined to regain its occupied territory after the First Karabakh War, recovered its lost territory in the Second Karabakh War in 2020. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that more than 5,000 people  were killed, including civilians, with 8,000 wounded and thousands displaced from their homes during the most recent outbreak of the conflict.[6] Currently, there is only a temporary ceasefire and truce in place. Without a more permanent agreement, the two sides may be condemned to future wars over the same issue.

Nagorno-Karabakh Refugees in Armenia

The refugee situation in Armenia has become increasingly dire as the country struggles to manage an influx of people fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia, with a population of nearly three million, now faces the daunting task of accepting the arrival of more than 100,000 refugees. Many of these individuals are in urgent need of assistance in terms of shelter, food, medical care, and psychological support. This mass exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh represents a significant humanitarian challenge for the Armenian government and its limited resources. As a result, Armenian authorities and various aid organisations are trying to establish reception centres and temporary shelters, but resources are limited, and the needs are immense.

The political and economic instability in Armenia further complicates the current status quo. The government, which is currently struggling with internal problems, is required to meet the demands of a significant refugee population. This influx has also reignited political tensions within Armenia as people debate the government’s handling of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and its aftermath. [7]

In October 2023, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) initiated a $97 million Emergency Refugee Response Plan for Armenia, aimed at providing relief efforts until the end of March 2024.[8] This plan outlined the necessary measures to address the urgent needs of refugees who have fled from Nagorno-Karabakh. Alongside UNHCR’s efforts, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), in collaboration with the Armenian Red Cross, has been active on the ground, delivering essential support such as healthcare services, food distribution, and economic assistance to individuals affected by the conflict.[9] The World Health Organization (WHO) has also been pivotal in the humanitarian response. Since September 2023, WHO has estimated that thousands of refugees will require urgent mental health support. In response, it has been working with the Armenian Ministry of Health, backed by a $2.9 million emergency donor appeal, to address these critical needs.[10] Last but not least, the European Union has provided substantial support as well, allocating €17.5 million in humanitarian aid since September 2023 to assist displaced individuals in Armenia and the remaining population in Nagorno-Karabakh.[11]

As for individual countries’ aid, in late September 2023, the UK government committed £1 million to the ICRC to bolster its humanitarian efforts in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.[12] By February 2024, the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office confirmed ongoing cooperation with the UN, ICRC, and other NGOs to continually assess and address the humanitarian requirements in the region. France has also significantly contributed to the aid efforts. In December 2023, it announced additional support for Armenia, raising its total contributions to emergency appeals by the ICRC, UNHCR, and other NGOs to €27.5 million for the year. Meanwhile, the United States announced an additional $4.1 million in aid in November 2023, bringing its total humanitarian assistance to the region to $28 million since 2020. [13]

Despite these efforts, the response by international organisations and foreign governments has faced criticism for being slow and insufficient given the scale of the crisis. The Armenian government has repeatedly appealed for more international aid to address immediate humanitarian needs and to develop longer-term solutions for the integration and support of the refugees. These concerted international efforts, while significant, highlight the ongoing need for greater global commitment to fully support the displaced population from Nagorno-Karabakh.

Conclusion and Recommendations

This refugee crisis underscores the fragile peace in the South Caucasus and the ongoing humanitarian crisis from the long-standing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. As the situation evolves, it remains critical for the international community to provide sustained support to Armenia to manage this humanitarian emergency and to work towards lasting peace and stability in the region.

Immediate humanitarian aid, including basic necessities, health services, and psychological support, is crucial. Long-term solutions focusing on economic and social integration, housing, and infrastructure are necessary for sustainable support. [14]

Furthermore, international cooperation and coordination are vital to address this crisis effectively. Armenia requires substantial international aid and diplomatic efforts to protect refugee rights. The political and economic instability in Armenia further complicates the situation, underscoring the need for a comprehensive and coordinated response. Therefore, sustained international support is critical for managing this emergency and working towards lasting peace and stability in the region.

Sources

[1] ‘Azerbaijan: Blockade of Lachin Corridor Putting Thousands of Lives in Peril Must Be Immediately Lifted ’ (Amnesty International, 6 March 2023) https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/02/azerbaijan-blockade-of-lachin-corridor-putting-thousands-of-lives-in-peril-must-be-immediately-lifted

[2]Zotova KA& N, ‘Nagorno-Karabakh: Thousands Flee as Armenia Says Ethnic Cleansing under Way’ (BBC News, 26 September 2023) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66905581

[3] Ertl M, ‘Nagorno-Karabakh: Conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenians Explained’ (BBC News, 28 September 2023) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66852070

[4] Broers L, ‘The Nagorno-Karabakh Republic: The Life and Death of an Unrecognized State’ (Eurasianet, 2 January 2024) https://eurasianet.org/the-nagorno-karabakh-republic-the-life-and-death-of-an-unrecognized-state

[5] ‘Xarici İşlər Nazirliyi: Xi̇n’ (AZƏRBAYCAN RESPUBLİKASI XARİCİ İŞLƏR NAZİRLİYİ) https://www.mfa.gov.az/en/category/historical-overview#:~:text=The%20Karabakh%20region%20has%20historically,part%20of%20different%20Azerbaijani%20states.

[6] ‘Nagorno-Karabakh: Nearly 5,000 Dead in Conflict, Putin Says’ (BBC News, 22 October 2020) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54652704

[7] Vartanyan O, ‘Armenia Struggles to Cope with Exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh’ (Crisis Group, 25 April 2024) https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/caucasus/armenian-azerbaijani-conflict-armenia/armenia-struggles-cope-exodus

[8] UNHCR (ARMENIA EMERGENCY REFUGEE RESPONSE, 2023) https://armenia.un.org/sites/default/files/2023-12/Inter-agency%20update%207.pdf

[9]  ‘Armenia’ (International Committee of the Red Cross, 30 April 2024) https://www.icrc.org/en/where-we-work/armenia

[10] WHO, ‘“with a Little Help, Everybody Here Can Move on. Nobody Is Hopeless.” Scaling up Mental Health and Psychosocial Services for Armenian Refugees’ (World Health Organization, 10 November 2023) https://www.who.int/europe/news-room/feature-stories/item/with-a-little-help–everybody-here-can-move-on.-nobody-is-hopeless.–scaling-up-mental-health-and-psychosocial-services-for-armenian-refugees

[11]Armenia and Azerbaijan’ (European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations) https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/where/europe/armenia-and-azerbaijan_en

[12]House of Commons Library (International support for Armenian refugees from nagorno- …, 14 March 2024) https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CDP-2024-0059/CDP-2024-0059.pdf

[13]‘The United States Announces More than $4 Million in Additional Humanitarian Assistance to People Affected by the Situation in Nagorno-Karabakh: Press Release’ (U.S. Agency for International Development, 22 November 2023) https://www.usaid.gov/news-information/press-releases/nov-21-2023-united-states-announces-more-4-million-additional-humanitarian-assistance-people-affected-situation-nagorno-karabakh

[14]  Vartanyan O, ‘Armenia Struggles to Cope with Exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh’ (Crisis Group, 25 April 2024) https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/caucasus/armenian-azerbaijani-conflict-armenia/armenia-struggles-cope-exodus