© Photo by DW Akademie – Africa via Flickr
International Peace & Security Section
Portugal: Socialist António José Seguro Wins Presidential Election Against Far-Right Candidate
Sudan: UN Warns Civilians and Aid Operations at Growing Risk Amid Escalating Airstrikes
US: Prepares Second Aircraft Carrier Deployment Amid Iran Tensions
Bangladesh: BNP Secures Landslide Victory in First Election Since Sheikh Hasina’s Ouster
Peru: ‘Guardianes de la Trocha’ Gang Consolidates Control Over Illegal Gold Trade
KSC: Closing Statements Begin in Thaçi’s Trial
On 9 February 2026, closing statements began in the trial of former Kosovo President Hashim Thaçi at the Kosovo Specialist Chambers (KSC). Thaçi is facing ten charges of crimes against humanity and war crimes, alongside three co-accused, Kadri Veseli, Rexhep Selimi, and Jakup Krasniq. The charges include murder, torture, and persecution, allegedly committed against political opponents and civilians while they were commanders of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) in Kosovo and northern Albania in 1998 and 1999. Prosecutors have stated that there is “overwhelming evidence” against the accused and are seeking a 45-year sentence for all four defendants. Prosecutor Kimberly West praised the bravery of witnesses and victims who testified despite facing a “climate of intimidation.” Thaçi is also facing a second trial later this month for witness intimidation. Thaçi and the three co-defendants maintain their innocence on all charges.
https://apnews.com/article/netherlands-kosovo-thaci-war-crimes-40d1f1f0b50cb2daca970a79d59ae2ba
Hong Kong: High Court Sentences Jimmy Lai to 20 Years’ Imprisonment
On 9 February 2026, the High Court of Hong Kong sentenced media owner and pro-democracy figure Jimmy Lai to 20 years’ imprisonment following his conviction on national security charges, including collusion with foreign forces. The sentencing constituted the court’s formal determination of criminal penalty after earlier findings of guilt and represented the most severe custodial sentence imposed under Hong Kong’s 2020 National Security Law. Lai, the founder of the now-defunct Apple Daily newspaper, had been prosecuted under the law, enacted to criminalise conduct deemed to threaten national security, including alleged cooperation with foreign actors. The sentencing formed part of ongoing prosecutions in Hong Kong’s courts involving journalists, political figures, and pro-democracy actors accused of offences under national security legislation.
Mali: Appeals Court Upholds Prison Sentence Against Former Prime Minister Moussa Mara
On 9 February 2026, the Court of Appeal in Bamako upheld the conviction and sentence of former Prime Minister Moussa Mara, confirming a two-year prison term, including one year to be served in custody and one year suspended, together with a fine. The appellate judgment affirmed the legality of the lower court’s ruling and constituted a final determination on appeal, subject to any further review by Mali’s Supreme Court. The conviction originated from charges under the 2019 cybercrime law, alleging that Mara had undermined the credibility of the state and opposed legitimate authority through public statements and social media posts expressing support for detained political figures. The appellate ruling formed part of broader criminal proceedings involving political figures and public commentary under Mali’s current legal framework, in which courts have adjudicated cases involving allegations of conduct deemed harmful to state authority.
https://www.hrw.org/news/2026/02/10/malis-military-junta-escalates-assault-on-free-expression
Hong Kong: Court Convicts Kwok Yin-sang Under National Security Law
On 11 February 2026, a Hong Kong court convicted Kwok Yin-sang, the father of pro-democracy activist Anna Kwok, of national security offences relating to alleged assistance to an individual sought by authorities under security legislation, with sentencing scheduled for 26 February 2026. Kwok Yin-sang was prosecuted for conduct linked to alleged financial or logistical support to his daughter, who has been accused by authorities of national security violations while residing abroad. The court’s decision established criminal responsibility under section 90 of the Safeguarding National Security Ordinance (Article 23), a provision that builds upon the national security legislation enacted in 2020, which expanded prosecutorial authority over conduct characterised as threatening state security. The conviction followed legal arguments regarding the application of national security provisions to acts involving familial or financial relationships with individuals accused of political offences. This takes place in the context of ongoing prosecutions involving pro-democracy figures and associated individuals under Hong Kong’s national security framework.
https://www.hrw.org/news/2026/02/11/hong-kong-conviction-of-activists-father-a-grim-milestone
Germany: Federal Constitutional Court Dismisses Constitutional Complaint Challenging Arms Exports to Israel
On 12 February 2026, the Federal Constitutional Court of Germany publicly released its 3 February 2026 order dismissing a constitutional complaint challenging the legality of the German government’s approval of arms exports to Israel, concluding that the applicants had not demonstrated a violation of their constitutional rights. The Court’s order determined that the complainants lacked standing to assert fundamental rights violations arising from the German government’s export licensing decisions. The complaint had been filed by Palestinian residents of Gaza, who argued that German export authorisations contributed to violations of international humanitarian law and infringed protections under the German Basic Law, including the right to life and human dignity. The Court examined whether constitutional protections extended extraterritorially and whether the applicants could directly invoke those protections in relation to arms export decisions. The Court concluded that the complainants had not established a sufficiently direct and individualised legal interest capable of sustaining constitutional review. It therefore rejected the complaint as inadmissible without proceeding to substantive examination of the export authorisations themselves.
CJEU: Advocate General Finds Hungary’s Sovereignty Law Incompatible with EU Law
On 12 February 2026, Advocate General Juliane Kokott of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) issued an Opinion concluding that Hungary had failed to fulfil its obligations under EU law by adopting legislation establishing its Sovereignty Protection Office and related investigatory powers. The Opinion formed part of infringement proceedings brought by the European Commission, which challenged the compatibility of Hungary’s sovereignty law with EU fundamental freedoms and Charter-protected rights. The Advocate General determined that the contested legislation granted public authorities broad investigatory powers capable of interfering with freedoms guaranteed under EU law, including freedom of expression, freedom of association, and the free movement of capital and services. The Opinion found that the law permitted intrusive examination of organisations and individuals receiving foreign funding, including journalists and civil society actors, without sufficient safeguards to ensure proportionality and legal certainty. The Advocate General further concluded that provisions enabling the publication of findings by the Sovereignty Protection Office risked stigmatising affected individuals and organisations, and that the regulatory framework created deterrent effects capable of discouraging lawful cross-border engagement and participation in public life. The Opinion also found that elements of the law conflicted with EU data protection standards and protections guaranteed under the Charter of Fundamental Rights. The Advocate General’s Opinion will inform the Court’s final judgment, which will determine whether Hungary must amend or repeal the contested legislation to comply with EU law.
https://curia.europa.eu/site/upload/docs/application/pdf/2026-02/cp260016en.pdf
South Korea: Court Sentences Former Minister for Role in 2024 Martial Law Declaration
On 12 February 2026, former interior and safety minister Lee Sang-min was sentenced to seven years in prison by the Seoul Central District Court for his role in former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s brief declaration of martial law in 2024. This verdict comes just one week before the verdict in Yoon’s insurrection trial, expected on 19 February, where prosecutors are seeking the death penalty. Lee was convicted of playing a key role in the martial law declaration by ordering the police and fire service to cut water and electricity supplies to news organisations. The orders were not carried out, and the martial law was lifted within hours after politicians broke through a police blockade at the National Assembly and unanimously voted to lift the decree. Despite testimony from officials, Lee denied giving such orders and denied his involvement in the martial law declaration. However, the court found that Lee’s actions contributed to an attempt to suppress opposition and extend military rule, which undermined democratic principles. Prosecutors had sought a 15-year sentence, arguing Lee played a critical role in enabling the insurrection. Lee is the second member of Yoon’s cabinet to be sentenced in connection with the martial law declaration, after former Prime Minister Han Duck-soo was sentenced to 23-years in prison in January.
https://apnews.com/article/south-korea-lee-sang-min-martial-law-e9fb58e43d341737713b0eb2eef9c8cf
ICC: Pre-Trial Chamber Denies Appeal in Duterte Case Challenging Ruling Deeming Him Fit to Stand Trial
On 13 February 2026, the International Criminal Court (ICC) rejected an appeal from former Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte, ruling him fit to stand trial for crimes against humanity. Duterte’s defence claimed the Pre-Trial Chamber had ignored clinical evidence of mental impairment and criticised the Chamber’s decision to refuse to hold a hearing on his health. The defence also contended that the Chamber did not clearly justify its decision to proceed with confirmation proceedings, confining its assessment of Duterte’s health to the pre-trial phase, and the lack of consideration for the effects its findings could have on the former president’s overall capability to stand trial. The ICC denied these claims, stating the defence’s “memory impairment” concerns were addressed in the ruling of 26 January 2026. The court held that the defence’s reports were assessed by independent experts but could not be relied upon, instead considering impartial sources to ensure fairness. However, it noted that Duterte’s health and ability to stand trial could be revisited during the trial. The confirmation of charges hearing is scheduled to take place from 23 to 27 February 2026.
https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/CourtRecords/0902ebd180dbe853.pdf
Libya: 53 Dead After Migrant Boat Capsizes
On 9 February 2026, it was reported a migrant boat carrying 55 people, including two babies, capsized off the coast of Libya. The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) announced that two Nigerian women are the only survivors, having been rescued by Libyan authorities. The boat had departed from the city of al-Zawiya in north-western Libya. One of the survivors told IOM officials that her husband had died in the shipwreck, while the other survivor revealed that she had lost her two babies. According to IOM reports, at least 375 migrants died or went missing in January alone, following a series of “invisible” shipwrecks in the Mediterranean Sea during adverse weather conditions. The actual death toll is expected to be much higher. Libya has emerged as a primary departure point for migrants from sub-Saharan Africa attempting to reach Europe via the Mediterranean route. Despite the treacherous journey and repeated tragedies, migrants continue to attempt the crossing. IOM reports reveal that traffickers and smugglers frequently force people onto unsafe, overcrowded boats, further exacerbating the already dangerous situation.
Somalia-Saudi Arabia: Sign Military Cooperation Agreement
On 9 February 2026, Somalia and Saudi Arabia signed a military cooperation agreement in Riyadh. The memorandum of understanding was signed by Somali Defence Minister Ahmed Moallim Fiqi and Saudi Arabian Defence Minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman. The Somali Defence Ministry said in a statement that the pact will “strengthen the frameworks of defence and military cooperation between the two countries,” addressing numerous areas of mutual interest. This deal follows a similar agreement announced just weeks ago between Somalia and Qatar, as Mogadishu looks to build regional support following Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, the first country to recognise the breakaway region. Mogadishu has expressed concerns that Israel may establish a military base in Somaliland, potentially using it to launch attacks on neighbouring countries. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has strongly opposed this possibility and declared they “will never allow” Israel to establish a base in Somaliland. Last month, Somalia revoked all agreements with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), following reports that the UAE aided Israel in recognition of Somaliland’s independence.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/10/somalia-saudi-arabia-sign-agreement-on-military-cooperation
Portugal: Socialist António José Seguro Wins Presidential Election Against Far-Right Candidate
On 9 February 2026, moderate Socialist António José Seguro won a decisive victory in the second round of Portugal’s presidential election, defeating far-right candidate André Ventura. With over 99% of ballots counted, Seguro garnered 66.8% of the vote, effectively halting the momentum of the Chega party leader, who secured 33.2%. The election, which took place amid a state of calamity due to severe winter storms, featured cross-party support, with some politicians from both the left and right backing Seguro to prevent a Chega victory. While the role is largely ceremonial, Seguro pledged to be a stabilising partner for Prime Minister Luís Montenegro’s minority government. Despite the loss, Ventura’s performance marks a historic high for the far-right, nearly doubling the support his party received in the 2021 presidential polls. Ventura has claimed the result establishes Chega as the main party on the right, signalling his intent to target the premiership in future legislative contests. However, analysts suggest the result may represent a political “ceiling” for Ventura, as a significant majority of the electorate remains resistant to his anti-immigration and “interventionist” agenda. Seguro, who will succeed Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in March, pledged in his victory speech to be a president for all Portuguese, emphasising a commitment to freedom and democratic stability.
Sudan: UN Warns Civilians and Aid Operations at Growing Risk Amid Escalating Airstrikes
On 11 February 2026, the UN warned that escalating aerial attacks across Sudan are increasingly endangering civilians and humanitarian operations, as airstrikes continue to hit schools, places of worship, and aid facilities. In North Kordofan, two children were reportedly killed and 13 others injured when a drone strike hit a mosque adjoining a school in Al-Rahad. Hours earlier, a primary school in Dilling, South Kordofan, was also struck. In Kadugli, the capital of South Kordofan, a warehouse belonging to the World Food Programme was damaged by suspected rocket fire, affecting aid storage capacity. The UN said further strikes have been reported across South, North, and West Kordofan, including near key supply routes, placing civilians and humanitarian workers at risk. UN officials stressed that attacks on civilian infrastructure violate international humanitarian law and must cease. Despite worsening insecurity, a multi-agency UN convoy of 41 trucks carrying nearly 800 metric tonnes of food and essential supplies reached Kadugli this week, marking a rare breakthrough along a previously closed route. However, continued displacement is rapidly depleting limited aid stocks. The conflict, which erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces, has triggered the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, with around 30 million people in need of assistance and more than 115,000 people displaced across the Kordofan region since late October.
Cuba: Mexican Ships Deliver Humanitarian Aid Amid US Oil Blockade
On 12 February 2026, two Mexican ships carrying humanitarian supplies docked in Havana, Cuba, as the US continues its efforts to cut Cuba off from external fuel supplies under an oil blockade announced last month. One of the vessels, the Papaloapan, unloaded aid in the Cuban capital, with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum pledging to send further assistance once the ships return. She described Mexico’s role as helping “open the doors for dialogue” between Cuba and the US, while stressing the importance of safeguarding Cuba’s sovereignty. Since January, the administration of US President Donald Trump has sought to halt oil flows to the island, including by targeting supplies from allies such as Venezuela, long a key energy partner for Havana. Washington has also threatened tariffs on countries that continue supplying oil to Cuba. The measures have prompted warnings from UN officials that dwindling fuel supplies could trigger a humanitarian “collapse”, as blackouts intensify and essential services face disruption. The US has meanwhile announced US$6m in humanitarian assistance for Cuba, though it said the aid would be channelled through the Catholic Church rather than the Cuban government. Despite the pressure, Mexico has criticised the blockade as “unfair” and proceeded with the delivery of aid. Residents in Havana described the arrival of the ships as a rare and vital show of solidarity amid growing shortages.
US: Prepares Second Aircraft Carrier Deployment Amid Iran Tensions
On 12 February 2026, US President Donald Trump indicated that the US is readying a second aircraft carrier for deployment to the Middle East, despite ongoing nuclear diplomacy with Iran. The USS Gerald R. Ford strike group is being prepared to join the USS Abraham Lincoln, which arrived in the region with three guided-missile destroyers more than two weeks ago. Officials said the move aims to reinforce US military presence as pressure mounts on Tehran to reach a deal over its nuclear programme. The announcement comes several days after Trump hosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington, reaffirming his preference for continued negotiations with Iran but warning that the US could take military action if talks fail. Tehran has cautioned that Israel is attempting to undermine the diplomatic process, while US officials insist the two countries are in direct negotiations. Last week, the US and Iran held their first round of indirect talks since 2025 in Oman. Trump stressed that any agreement would prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons or missiles, although Iran maintains its missile programme is non-negotiable. The US president has also repeatedly warned of renewed strikes against Iran if negotiations collapse.
Bangladesh: BNP Secures Landslide Victory in First Election Since Sheikh Hasina’s Ouster
On 13 February 2026, Bangladesh held its first general election since the student-led uprising that ended the 15-year rule of Sheikh Hasina in 2024. Unofficial results indicate a landslide victory for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Tarique Rahman, which is reported to have won approximately 212 of the 299 contested parliamentary seats. The 11-party alliance led by the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami party emerged as the primary opposition, securing 77 seats. The election was notable for the exclusion of Hasina’s Awami League, which was barred from participating by the interim government. Alongside the parliamentary vote, a national referendum was held on “the July Charter,” a suite of constitutional reforms designed to prevent future autocracy. Early figures show more than 60% voted in favour, supporting measures such as a two-term limit for prime ministers and enhanced judicial independence. The Election Commission said the voter turnout was approximately 60%, with international observers and the interim government, led by Muhammad Yunus, characterising the polls as a significant step toward democratic restoration. The BNP has already signalled its intent to seek the extradition of Sheikh Hasina from India to face trial.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/13/bangladesh-election-bnp-wins
Peru: ‘Guardianes de la Trocha’ Gang Consolidates Control Over Illegal Gold Trade
On 13 February 2026, a joint investigation by Forbidden Stories and Mongabay Latam revealed the deepening grip of the ‘Guardianes de la Trocha’ (Guardians of the Trail) gang over illegal gold mining in La Pampa, located in the Madre de Dios department of Peru. Operating within the buffer zone of the Tambopata National Reserve, the criminal syndicate has established a regime of terror characterised by extortion, forced disappearances, and intimidation. Despite the 2019 Operation Mercury crackdown, the group has successfully reclaimed territory, now overseeing an industry reported to be six times more profitable than drug trafficking in the region. The investigation highlights the systematic targeting of environmental defenders and journalists, such as Manuel Calloquispe, who have faced death threats and physical violence for documenting the gang’s operations. Furthermore, the gang’s influence is allegedly bolstered by rising corruption and the infiltration of local security forces. As illegal gold production surges, the resulting environmental impact has reached critical levels, with approximately 140,000 hectares of Amazon rainforest deforested. The report underscores a lack of state presence, leaving local communities vulnerable to the gang’s sophisticated armed network and expanding illicit economy.
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