Key Insights

• The escalation of the Iran–Israel conflict on 28 February 2026 demonstrates how regional geopolitical crises can rapidly disrupt global energy and food systems, increasing food insecurity and migration pressures, particularly across the Mediterranean.
• The Mediterranean’s dependence on maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz represents a critical vulnerability for food security, as disruptions to this corridor could affect the supply of energy and fertilisers essential for agricultural production.
• The relationship between food insecurity and migration demonstrates how regional conflicts can produce consequences that extend far beyond their immediate geographical area.
• The current crisis demonstrates that food security is not determined exclusively by domestic agricultural production, but also by the resilience of international supply chains and the stability of global trade routes.
• Food insecurity increasingly acts as a driver of forced migration, as rising food prices and declining agricultural livelihoods push vulnerable populations to seek safety and economic opportunities elsewhere.

Background

The escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, culminating in February 2026 with a large-scale military offensive conducted by the United States and Israel against strategic Iranian targets, represents one of the main sources of international instability. Iran’s immediate response, through the launch of missiles and drones targeting Israeli territory and U.S. military bases across the Gulf, transformed what had initially been a regional crisis into a conflict with potentially global repercussions.

Although international attention has primarily focused on the military and political consequences of the war, one of its less visible yet most significant effects concerns food security. The intensification of hostilities has increased the risk of disruptions along the Middle East’s main trade routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime corridor for the transport of oil, liquefied natural gas and fertilisers.^[1]

As highlighted by the Director-General of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), QU Dongyu: “This is not only a geopolitical crisis, but also a disruption at the core of the global agrifood system”, confirming that any slowdown or interruption to maritime traffic through the Strait could compromise the availability of essential agricultural inputs, leading to lower agricultural productivity and rising food prices.^[2]

These impacts are expected to be particularly severe for import-dependent Mediterranean countries, where reliance on international markets for food, energy and agricultural inputs increases vulnerability to external shocks. Across the region, economic fragility, climate pressures and existing social challenges could further intensify the risk of food insecurity, demonstrating how geopolitical instability can directly affect the resilience of Mediterranean food systems.^[3]

The Strait of Hormuz and its Implications for Food Security in the Mediterranean Region

The disruption and slowdown of maritime traffic through one of the world’s most strategic shipping corridors has created significant consequences for the global agrifood system. In this regard, the Strait of Hormuz represents a crucial gateway for international trade, through which substantial shares of globally traded oil, liquefied natural gas and agricultural inputs, including essential fertilisers, are transported. Any restriction affecting the flow of goods through this maritime route has therefore generated what the FAO has described as a potential “systemic shock” to global food supply chains.^[4]

The most severe consequences, beyond the Strait’s role as a key corridor for energy supplies, have been experienced by Mediterranean countries, which appear particularly vulnerable due to their significant dependence on international markets for food commodities, energy and agricultural inputs. The Strait is also fundamental for the movement of raw materials required for agricultural production, such as urea, ammonia and phosphate-based fertilisers. Disruptions in their availability risk increasing production costs, reducing farmers’ capacity to maintain agricultural yields and contributing to further pressure on food prices worldwide.^[5]

These dynamics directly affect the four dimensions of food security: food availability, economic and physical access to food, food utilisation and the stability of supply over time. A disruption in global agricultural input markets, indeed, does not only reduce production capacity but can also limit households’ ability to access sufficient, safe and nutritious food, particularly in countries already affected by economic fragility and social instability.^[6]

The vulnerability of Mediterranean countries is particularly evident when analysing national cases. For instance:

• in Lebanon, the combination of economic crisis, conflict-related disruptions and dependence on imported food has severely weakened the resilience of the national food system. According to FAO and the Word Food Programme (WFP) assessments, a significant share of the Lebanese population has faced acute food insecurity due to reduced purchasing power, displacement and disruptions to agricultural activities.
• Egypt represents another critical case, as the country remains highly dependent on cereal imports, particularly wheat, to meet domestic demand. Fluctuations in international prices and disruptions to supply chains therefore represent a direct threat to national food security.
• Jordan faces similar challenges, as limited agricultural capacity, severe water scarcity and climatic pressures increase reliance on imported cereals.
• Tunisia is also exposed to external shocks due to its dependence on imported agricultural commodities and vulnerability to global price volatility.^[7]

The conflict in the Middle East has therefore generated a chain reaction in which military instability disrupts international trade, increases the cost of agricultural inputs, reduces the availability of essential resources and intensifies existing economic and social vulnerabilities. In this line, the crisis demonstrates how regional conflicts can rapidly evolve into global challenges, affecting not only energy markets but also the resilience of food systems across the Mediterranean region.^[8]

Migration and Food (In)Security

The disruption of strategic trade routes in the Middle East, including the Strait of Hormuz, has highlighted the growing interconnection between geopolitical instability, food insecurity and migration dynamics across the Mediterranean region. The consequences of these disruptions are not limited to global markets but are increasingly reflected in the social and demographic pressures affecting vulnerable populations.

Within the Mediterranean basin, this relationship is particularly evident in countries such as Syria, Lebanon and Libya, where climate-related challenges, armed conflicts, political instability and socioeconomic fragilities overlap, creating a complex environment in which food insecurity becomes both a symptom and a driver of forced migration.^[9] In these contexts, the deterioration of agricultural systems, limited access to resources and declining economic opportunities can undermine livelihoods and push communities towards displacement, increasing pressure on neighbouring countries and humanitarian systems.^[10]

As highlighted by the United Nations, in Lebanon more than 1.2 million people are at risk of food insecurity due to the combined effects of regional conflict, population displacement and economic fragility, while 2.7 million require food assistance, reflecting the combined impacts of conflict, displacement and prolonged economic collapse.^[11]

Similar patterns can be observed in Syria, where more than a decade of conflict, combined with climate-related shocks and declining agricultural capacity, has contributed to one of the largest displacement crises in the world.  According to UN estimates, in Syria, more than 14 million people remain food insecure and over 7 million are internally displaced, illustrating the long-term interaction between conflict, climate shocks and the collapse of agricultural livelihoods.^[12]

Likewise, Libya continues to experience vulnerability due to political instability, limited agricultural production and dependence on food imports, factors that increase exposure to external shocks. Libya imports an estimated 75–90% of its food requirements, making it one of the most import-dependent countries in North Africa. Combined with political instability and limited agricultural production, this dependence increases the country’s vulnerability to disruptions in global food and energy supply chains.^[13]

In this context, food insecurity increasingly acts as both a consequence of conflict and a driver of forced displacement. When households lose access to affordable and nutritious food, agricultural activities decline and employment opportunities disappear, migration often becomes a survival strategy rather than a choice.

For the European Union, these dynamics represent a security and humanitarian challenge, as instability and declining livelihoods in the Southern Mediterranean neighbourhood can increase pressure on migration routes towards Europe. A growing concern for the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, is that an agricultural crisis could evolve into a food security crisis, which in turn could trigger a new wave of migration as people are forced to flee hunger and deteriorating living conditions.^[14]

Conclusion

The current crisis in the Middle East demonstrates how regional conflicts can have global consequences, affecting not only political stability but also food security and migration dynamics. The disruptions to strategic trade routes such as the Strait of Hormuz highlight the vulnerability of Mediterranean food systems and the dependence of many countries on international supply chains. As stated by United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, “food security is a cornerstone of peace and stability”, highlighting the close relationship between access to food, social resilience and global security. The crisis therefore illustrates how geopolitical tensions can increasingly influence food systems and contribute to wider humanitarian and social challenges across the Mediterranean region.

Recommendations

• Mediterranean countries should invest in sustainable agriculture, climate adaptation and local production capacities to reduce vulnerability to external shocks. Building resilient food systems is essential to guarantee long-term access to safe and nutritious food, aligning the objectives with the European Green Deal, the EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change, the Farm to Fork Strategy, and the Global Gateway.
• Reducing dependence on limited trade routes and external suppliers is crucial to mitigate the impact of geopolitical disruptions. The diversification of sources for food commodities, energy and fertilisers should become a strategic priority.
• The EU and Mediterranean partners should strengthen cooperation on monitoring food, energy and agricultural input markets to anticipate future crises. Coordinated responses and targeted support for vulnerable countries can reduce the humanitarian and migratory consequences of food insecurity.
• Long-term solutions should focus on improving rural livelihoods, supporting agricultural development and increasing economic opportunities in vulnerable countries. Tackling the root causes of food insecurity can help reduce the pressure for forced migration.
• The EU should recognise food insecurity as a factor contributing to instability and forced displacement by incorporating food system resilience into foreign policy, crisis prevention and migration management strategies. The New Pact on Migration and Asylum should be complemented by measures addressing the structural drivers of displacement, including conflict, climate change and food insecurity.

^[1] The Guardian, US and Israel strike Iran as Netanyahu says ‘many signs’ Khamenei ‘no longer alive’(2026) <https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/28/israel-launches-attack-on-iran-as-explosions-heard-in-tehran>; BBC, Why did US and Israel attack Iran and how long could the war last? (2026) <https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2dyz6p3weo>; AlJazeera, US-Israel attacks on Iran: Death toll and injuries live tracker (2026) <https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/1/us-israel-attacks-on-iran-death-toll-and-injuries-live-tracker>; ISW – Institute for the Study of the War, Iran Update Special Report: US and Israeli Strikes, (February 2026) <https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-special-report-us-and-israeli-strikes-february-28-2026/>.

^[2] UN, Clock is ticking’: Hormuz disruption raises fears of global food crisis (2026)  <https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/04/1167289>.

^[3] Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns

<https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-crisis–fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-supplies–fao-warns/en>.

^[4] UN Trade and Development, Strait of Hormuz disruptions: Implications for global trade and development https://unctad.org/publication/strait-hormuz-disruptions-implications-global-trade-and-development.

^[5] SpringerNature,Implications of interrupting the Hormuz Strait in the LNG trade (2026)  <https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12198-026-00350-1>.

^[6] FAO, An Introduction to the Basic Concepts of Food Security (2008) <https://www.fao.org/4/al936e/al936e00.pdf?utm>.

^[7] FAO, Food insecurity deepens in Lebanon following conflict, new report shows (2025)<https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/food-insecurity-deepens-in-lebanon-following-conflict–new-report-shows/en?utm>; FAO, GIEWS – Global Information and Early Warning System (2026) <https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=EGY&utm>; FAO, Jordan (2026) <https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000174931/download/>. FAO, Tunisia (2026)  <docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000171199/download/>.

^[8] Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), FAO Chief Economist warns of severe global food security risks from disruption to Strait of Hormuz trade corridor (2026)

<https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/fao-chief-economist-warns-of-severe-global-food-security-risks-from-disruption-to-strait-of-hormuz-trade-corridor/en>.

^[9] ScienceDirect, Armed conflicts, forced displacement and food security in host communities (2022)  <https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0305750X22001814>.

^[10] IOM, World Migration Report (2026) < https://worldmigrationreport.iom.int>.

^[11] World Food Programme, Food insecurity in Lebanon remains fragile despite signs of easing as the country enters the new year, new analysis shows, <https://www.wfp.org/news/food-insecurity-lebanon-remains-fragile-despite-signs-easing-country-enters-new-year-new>.

^[12] FAO, FAO emergencies and resilience,  <https://www.fao.org/emergencies/where-we-work/SYR/en>; World Food Programme, Syria   <https://www.wfp.org/countries/syrian-arab-republic>.

^[13] FAO, GIEWS – Global Information and Early Warning System (2026)  <https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp>.

^[14] Euronews, Iran, now the EU fears for food security and a new migration crisis  <https://www.eunews.it/2026/03/16/iran-ora-lue-teme-per-la-sicurezza-alimentare-e-una-nuova-crisi-migratoria/>; BMC Journal, Climate, conflict, and food security: a systematic review of household-level evidence (2020–2025)  <https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s41043-026-01267-0>; MDPI, Mapping the Evidence on Food Security Outcomes and Initiatives Among Climate Refugees: A Scoping Review (2026) <https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/15/4/777>.