© Photo by Jürg Fraefel via Flickr
by Kristian Weber, Fatima Umar, Alicia Blackham, Robin Fontaine, Soufiane Abdou and Asad Wajeed
- Migration in Southern Europe (Alicia Blackham)
2023 has marked a continuation of debates over immigration in southern Europe, with a number of nations taking an approach that has drawn criticism from humanitarian groups. Italy announced the ‘Rome Process’ aimed at tackling smuggling groups by outsourcing migration controls to third countries, with the Greek government later forming an alliance with Italy to reduce migration flows, against the backdrop of migrant deaths on land and at sea in Greece. Macron’s government in France is also in the process of attempting to institute tougher immigration law as debates continue over a proposed bill aiming to impose tighter controls on migration. Finally, the European Union announced a new migration and asylum deal in December 2023 which will assign a share of arrivals to each EU country. In light of this recent breakthrough, migration looks to be an issue that will continue to dominate political and humanitarian discussion in 2024.
- Elections in Tunisia (Robin Fontaine)
In 2024, Tunisia will face a critical juncture as it prepares for elections, marking a significant moment for the Arab Spring’s lone success story. However, the established democratic foundation is under strain following President Kais Saied’s 2021 self-coup. This move involved the dismissal of the prime minister, a constitutional rewrite, and the centralisation of power in the presidency, prompting concerns about a shift towards authoritarianism. The 2023 parliamentary elections recorded a disheartening turnout of less than 12%. The National Salvation Front, embodying the opposition, interprets this as a clear signal of President Saied’s diminishing credibility. The self-coup’s aftermath and the subsequent political landscape raise questions about the nation’s democratic resilience and the trajectory of governance, adding heightened significance to the forthcoming 2024 elections.
- What Cairo Can Expect from the BRICS (Robin Fontaine)
In 2024, Egypt is poised to join the BRICS amidst a severe economic crisis characterised by soaring foreign debts, the collapse of the Egyptian pound, high inflation rates, and trade balance deficits. High US dollar strength and interest rates have raised import costs, prompting a search for alternative funding without Western conditions. Whilst BRICS membership could potentially facilitate international trade, it may not significantly alleviate the country’s heavy reliance on imports. Egypt has already initiated dollar-free trade transactions through bilateral agreements with Russia, China, and India, aiming to integrate the Egyptian pound into global financial transactions. Joining the BRICS represents a symbolic victory for Egyptian foreign policy. However, it’s crucial to note that the BRICS, despite their symbolic strength, remain institutionally weak and lack robust governance. While Egypt anticipates a reduction in its dependency on the US dollar, the direct economic benefits of BRICS membership may prove elusive in the coming year. The move reflects a strategic manoeuvre for Egypt, yet tangible economic rewards within the BRICS framework might remain challenging to attain in the short term.
- Will 2024 See a Conflict Spillover in Lebanon? (Robin Fontaine)
In 2024, Lebanon faces a precarious situation amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza and potential spillover effects. The 2023 acceleration of bombing rates and armed engagements on the occupied Golan height might unfold into further escalation. The Israeli government, grappling with demographic concerns and Hezbollah’s armed presence on its borders, seems to contemplate extending the Gaza war into Lebanon. While the Biden administration engages in back-channel talks with Iran to maintain stability, Israel’s Netanyahu may seek to escalate the conflict in Lebanon, presenting a complex dilemma for Hezbollah’s response to international proposals, including a potential withdrawal to the Litani River. France intervenes to prevent further deterioration, with diplomatic efforts to negotiate Lebanon’s stability and extend the term of the armed forces commander. However, the risk persists, hinging on complex regional dynamics, potential compromises, and the delicate balance of power in the Middle East.
- Morocco and Sahel Evolving Trade Relations (Robin Fontaine)
The collaboration between Morocco and Sahel countries in 2023 marked a significant stride toward enhanced regional connectivity and economic development. The joint initiative, spearheaded by Moroccan King Mohammed VI, aimed to grant landlocked Sahel nations access to the Atlantic Ocean, leveraging Morocco’s infrastructure. The Ministerial Meeting in Marrakech solidified commitments from Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger to the initiative, recognising its strategic importance for South-South cooperation and regional co-development. Looking ahead to 2024, this collaborative effort positions Morocco as a central player in cross-Atlantic and Mediterranean trade. This enterprise’s success relies on implementing substantial infrastructural improvements, and as the project gains momentum, it holds the promise of strengthening ties between Morocco and Sahel countries while fostering economic prosperity and stability in the region. The initiative, emphasising infrastructural upgrades and connectivity, received praise for its potential to transform the Sahel region from a zone of instability to one of prosperity.
- Türkiye Rising (Robin Fontaine)
In 2023, the UNDP proposed the Türkiye Compact, a groundbreaking policy aiming to transform the challenges posed by the Syrian refugee crisis into an opportunity for economic development and improved international relations. Türkiye, hosting 3.3 million Syrian refugees, faces the urgent need to transition from an aid-driven approach to a self-sustaining developmental one. The Compact suggests a trade arrangement, seeking to leverage trade preferences from Canada, the EU, and the US to stimulate job creation for both refugees and host communities. The implementation could potentially generate substantial economic benefits, including a boost in Turkish exports by $7.8 billion in 2025, the creation of over 330,000 jobs, and an addition of close to 1% of value to Türkiye’s overall GDP. This initiative not only addresses the immediate needs of refugees, but also offers a mutually beneficial framework that could enhance Türkiye’s foreign relations by creating new economic opportunities and fostering collaboration.
- New Russian Base in Libya? (Robin Fontaine)
In 2023, Libya exhibited signs of escalating instability, marked by a stalled political reconciliation process and a growing reliance on foreign alliances. As Libya grapples with corruption, economic fragility, and illegal migration, the power dynamics among local actors have become more entrenched. The ageing generation of leaders, savvy in navigating complexities, is likely to focus on preserving existing networks, minimising the prospects for meaningful political progress in 2024. Potential risks include oil blockades, attempts to replace Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, and inter-militia conflicts. Furthermore, recent talks between Putin and Haftar suggest Russia’s interest in establishing military bases in Libya, raising concerns about potential espionage capabilities aimed at the European Union. For 2024, the EU will navigate a delicate balance, addressing the risks of renewed conflict and bolstering efforts for political stability. The prospect of Russia establishing military bases in Libya adds urgency to international efforts, with the U.S. taking the threat seriously. The outcome hinges on the ability of external powers to influence local actors positively and prevent further deterioration in Libya’s fragile state.
- Paths to Peace: Developments in Turkish-Greek Relations (Asad Wajeed)
In 2023, the relationship between Türkiye and Greece underwent a significant shift. At the 5th High-Level Cooperation Council (HLCC) during Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s recent visit to Athens, Greece and Türkiye took a groundbreaking step towards reconciliation. The leaders of these two countries, who have been historical adversaries, have committed to overcoming their longstanding issues and forging closer ties. In the past, Turkish-Greek relations have been characterised by mutual disagreements, bellicose rhetoric, and outright conflict. Issues such as the borders of their respective continental shelves, energy resources, overflights of the Aegean Sea, and ethnically split Cyprus have brought these countries to the brink of war three times in the past fifty years. However, Greece’s humanitarian aid to Türkiye after the 2023 earthquake and the re-establishment of the automatic Visa system for Turkish nationals to visit ten of its islands have played a significant role in turning the tide of antagonism between these two nations. 2024 looks to begin a new era of peaceful cooperation between Türkiye and Greece as the two nations seek to redefine their bilateral relations across a broad spectrum of sectors. The world watches with anticipation as Türkiye and Greece take bold steps to ensure a new era of friendship and collaboration.
- Legal Challenges Ahead for Israel (Fatima Umar)
The last quarter of 2023 saw a mass escalation in the Israel-Palestine conflict when Hamas, a Palestinian political and militant organisation, carried out an unprecedented attack on nearby Israeli settlers, killing 1139 Israelis and wounding 8730 since October 7. The retaliation by Israel has led to at least 22,600 Palestinians killed, including 9,600 children, and 57,910 wounded in attacks on hospitals, schools, refugee camps, residential areas and places of worship. While the war continues in 2024, South Africa has initiated proceedings in the International Court of Justice against Israel for violating the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. While the United States of America supports Israel’s denial of these allegations, Türkiye has officially backed South Africa. However, this might not be an easy case against Israel, as demonstrating genocidal intent is one the most difficult yet critical steps in genocide trials. Nonetheless, this may be the first in a series of legal advancements against Israel that support the narrative against Israel for committing, as stated by the former director of the New York office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Craig Mokhiber, “a textbook case of genocide”. Moreover, this might further aggravate the internal opposition against Netanyahu for mishandling the situation and losing moral standing.
- Possible Impact of the Palestinian – Israeli Conflict on Egypt (Soufiane Abdou)
The current state of affairs suggest that the Egyptian involvement in the Israeli – Hamas conflict seems highly likely to remain restrained. Although the Egyptian population has shown and appears likely to continue showing increased support for the Palestinian cause as the civilian death toll skyrockets, the Egyptian official position will surely remain the same – support for the Palestinian civilians through humanitarian aid and political support to Palestine in international relations. However, the Egyptian position on accepting Palestinian migrants or refugees looks to remain negative. We can also expect a further involvement of Egypt toward peace in the region by conducting or participating in peace negotiations alongside the US and Qatar. We’re likely to see real Egyptian engagement toward the creation of a Palestinian state, if this topic moves forward this year.